Newbery/Caldecott 2027: Spring Prediction Edition

Oh.

Oh, you… you thought I’d wait? That after the 15th of March I wouldn’t do precisely the thing that I do every single year at WAY too early an interval? If that’s what went through your mind then you, my dear sweet friends, do not know me a jot. None of this is helped, of course, by what happened last year. That terrible thing. That horrible, inarguably awful thing.

I was right about some of the winners.

And as everyone should know, when I am right I become insufferable. When I make accurate predictions it goes directly to my tiny noggin. I start thinking I’m the queen of the world. I throw my weight about. I begin to believe that I’ve a knack for this sort of thing.

You know what cures me of those ill-conceived conceptions? A BRAND NEW ROUND OF PREDICTIONS, BABY! Predictions that are way way off. Predictions that slap me in the face. So, to quote my sister, buckle up, buttercup. Today I’m kicking off the Newbery/Caldecott 2027 Prediction Post the same way I do every year (a.k.a. way too early) and I’m also, in an attempt to tie my ego up with chains and leather straps, going to show you how wrong I’ve been in previous Spring Prediction posts.

Here’s the round-up:

2008 spring predictions: I get one Caldecott right (How I Learned Geography)

2009 spring predictions: I get two Newberys right (The Evolution of Calpurnia Tate and The (Mostly) True Adventures of Homer P Figg)

2010 spring predictions: I get one Newbery right (One Crazy Summer)

2011 spring predictions: I get one Newbery right (Inside Out and Back Again)

2012 spring predictions: I get two Newberys right (The One and Only Ivan and Splendors and Glooms), and one Caldecott right (Green).

2013 spring predictions: I get two Newberys right (Doll Bones and One Came Home) and one Caldecott right (Mr. Wuffles).  But pride goeth before the fall.

2014 spring predictions: Zip. Zero. Zilch.

2015 spring predictions: I get two Newberys right (Echo and The War That Saved My Life)

2016 spring predictions: Zero correct, though the commenters do mention two books that would go on to win.

2017 spring predictions: I got one Caldecott right, and that just happened to be the ultimate winner (Wolf In the Snow).

2018 spring predictions: I got one Newbery right (The Book of Boy).

2019 spring predictions: I got two Caldecotts right (Going Down Home With Daddy and Undefeated) and one Newbery right (The New Kid by Jerry Craft).

2020 spring predictions: I got one Caldecott right (Outside In by Deborah Underwood, ill. Cindy Derby) and one Newbery right (Fighting Words by Kimberly Brubaker Bradley).

2021 spring predictions: I got two Caldecotts right (Unspeakable and Watercress) and one Newbery right (Too Bright to See).

2022 spring predictions: I got one Caldecott right (Knight Owl) and one Newbery right (The Last Mapmaker).

2023 spring predictions: I got two Newberys right (The Eyes and the Impossible and Simon Sort of Says).

2024 spring predictions: Nuthin’. Not since 2015 have I done this poorly.

2025 spring predictions: I got one Caldecott right (Our Lake) and two Newberys right (All the Blues in the Sky and The Undead Fox of Deadwood Forest)

At this point I’d normally launch into my predictions, but this year I’d like to pause for a moment, be a little serious, and address something that has recently come to my attention. I am… unnerved about something. Something that was once predicted and now seems to be coming to pass.

Since the re-election of Donald Trump we’ve seen a significant uptick in book banning around the United States. A grand part of it has focused on LGBTQIA+ voices, but it is by no means exclusive in that area. All BIPOC creators have also, on some level, been affected. So the question we’ve faced until now is: How is this affecting children’s book publishing? Will publishers start to restrict the number of diverse voices on their lists as a result?

It’s all theoretical… up to a point. On February 26th of this year, Publishers Weekly presented the Jason Low piece Opinion: How Book Bans Led to the Postponement of the Diversity Baseline Survey. As Jason wrote, “I regret to inform you that DBS 4.0 will be postponed until further notice. While we are proud of the contributions the survey has made and what a workforce dataset tells us about our industry, we have come to the realization that a demographic survey must take a backseat to more pressing matters.”

Those “pressing matters” are organized book bans as a whole. But let’s think for a moment about what the books being published in 2026 actually look like right now. Folks, I see a LOT of children’s books on a regular basis, but I am not a review journal. I am not an editor. I see only, to a certain degree, what I am sent and what I find via starred reviews. And here is what I have been able to determine about 2026:

Where are all the Black people?

Black creators are being published, yes. But where are the Newbery contenders? Where are the Caldecott contenders? By this time last year I was predicting wins for not only All the Blues in the Sky but also Will’s Race for Home. On the Caldecott side I saw The History of We. This year I’ve been begging fellow readers to tell me the Black authored titles that could win the big awards. I’m seeing some good stuff, no question. Melodies of the Weary Blues: Classic Poems Illustrated for Young People, poems by Langston Hughes, compiled by Shamar Knight-Justice, illustrated by many is extraordinary (interview to come). Ditto nonfiction titles like Hairstory by Sope Martins, ill. Briana Mukodiri Uchendu and Fros, Fades, and Braids: A Brief History of Black Hair in America by Sean Qualls. But… where’s my fiction? What happened to all the fiction? Thirteen years ago I wrote a post called 2013 Middle Grade Black Boys: Seriously, People? where I counted five middle grades starring Black boys published in a given year (and three were written by sports stars). I do NOT want to go back to that.

So… where are they?

Here’s a tip: Keep an eye on the deals reported in PW Children’s Bookshelf these days. See if you’re seeing what I’m seeing. And if I’m missing LOTS of books here today TELL ME!! I very very much want people to read this, get mad, and tell me how misguided and wrong I am. Please!! I welcome your scorn and corrections! I also welcome a treasure trove of diversity in the Fall of 2026. Bring it on!

And on that note, here’s what’s out there that I think has a chance this year (so far):

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2027 Caldecott Predictions

Bing’s Cherries by Livia Blackburne, ill. Julie Kuo

You think I’m kidding? I ain’t kidding. I interviewed the creators of this book recently for a reason. Kuo is still relatively new on the illustration scene. Her books have gotten starred reviews in the past, but she’s never produced a book that had Caldecott buzz… until now. This project has a lot of what committees look for. An incredible backstory (how often does an illustrator loop in an author to help her with her dream book?). Actual history. Tall tales (which haven’t won any Caldecotts since 1995 with Swamp Angel). Plus (and this is key) Kuo has gotten creative with her artistic style with this book. Committees kind of love it when someone does something original with a book AND manages to imbue the story with humor and heart. Check out these images alone:

I think I’m on to something.

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Fourteen Ways of Looking at Jellyfish by Carole Boston Weatherford, ill. Bagram Ibatoulline

Because Caldecotts and Newberys do not create longlists or shortlists, the eventual winners can sometimes feel a bit random or out of left field. As such, this leads well-meaning folks (like myself) to get a little superstitious. Enough years go by and you start to make “rules”. Rules like, if a really accomplished author/illustrator doesn’t win a Caldecott within the first 10 years of their books, they will never ever be allowed to win later in their careers. Or, other rules like, If an illustrator creates books in the same artistic style over and over, the Caldecott committees will ignore them. Are these real rules? Heck, no. But I’ve always had a running tally in my head of folks that should win awards and never have. Folks like Bagram Ibatoulline. Look, we can all agree that the man is a certifiable artistic genius. He’s lived in the U.S. since 1991 and yet in spite of the New York Times saying that, “Bagram Ibatoulline’s haunting color plates and sepia illustrations at the beginning of each chapter evoke the era of Andrew Wyeth, Howard Pyle and Maxfield Parrish,” he has never gotten even a sniff of a Caldecott for his work.

So this year? He went a little nuts.

You’re going to go into reading Fourteen Ways of Looking at a Jellyfish thinking it is yet another rah-rah-let’s-go-jellyfish picture book title. And it is rah-rah. It is also made of poems. And Bagram? Well, I guess he decided he just didn’t care anymore. At first his art is the pretty standard, beautiful stuff we known him for. And then… it gets weird. Real real real real real weird. Folks, whatever is going on with this book, WATCH IT. There is no other book like this out in 2026. And for the record, Carole Boston Weatherford has penned two previous Caldecott Honor winners. That’s no small potatoes.

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Goldfinches by Mary Oliver, ill. Melissa Sweet

Okay. So far I’ve featured two illustrators who have never won Caldecotts, one newish and one oldish. Now let’s consider someone who has won TWO Caldecott Honors so far… but not yet the gold. Melissa Sweet? Yeah, you only think you know her style. Turns out, Melissa is a dangerous entity this year. Now I’ve been joking with folks recently that if you want to win a Caldecott, all you need to do is include some hot pink on your cover. Just look at Fireworks, after all! Sweet doesn’t skimp on the pink, but that’s not why this book is one of the heaviest contenders of the year. In essence, Sweet has done the impossible. She has adapted a Mary Oliver poem into a picture book format and not only does it work (not a given in the least) but it’s also a legitimately fun and interesting STEM title as well. This book has the literary acumen of Oliver, science that any elementary school teacher is going to love, and then on top of all of that, Sweet is doing her absolute best work. Just as the book highlights the interconnected relationship of the thistles and the goldfinches, this partnership is mirrored in what Oliver brings out of Sweet’s art and how Sweet brings to roaring life Oliver’s text. This book isn’t a dark horse candidate. As far as I’m concerned, it may be the frontrunner.

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Hold by Randy Ribay, ill. Zeke Peña

That I didn’t grant Zeke Peña the respect that he deserved when he ran off with a 2026 Caldecott Honor for Sundust (with its copious hot pink!?!) is on me. To be frank, the minute I learned that he was the illustrator behind My Papi Has a Motorcycle, I should have realized that he was a force to be reckoned with. This year, he’s not solo anymore. He’s paired with Randy Ribay. But, see, here’s the thing about Randy. I’d not noticed him much in the past because he was a teen writer, winning the Asian/Pacific American Award for Literature for his YA novel Everything We Never Had. Now he’s written a picture book, and if you combine the visual wit of Peña with the writing of Ribay, you end up with a potentially unstoppable force. This book has one single disadvantage working against it however: It totally sucks if you just read the PDF. I don’t know why. This happens with picture books sometimes. Read the paper copy and it’s brilliant. Read the PDF and it’s meh. If the Caldecott committee manages to get their hands on actual physical copies of this book, I think it stands a very strong chance of winning. Of course, in this day and age that’s a BIG if…

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I Am a Mountain by Steven Weinberg

Okay, I take back what I said about Melissa Sweet being the clear frontrunner. She’s now neck and neck with this gorgeous bit of watercoloring. Weinberg has, prior to this book, always suffused his stories with humor. Now he’s decided to get all gorgeous on us instead. When first I read this book I was blown away, but I worried that my reaction was disproportionate because I’ve such affection for Steven, his wife Casey (out with an adult novel of her own this year), and his father-in-law Jon. As such, I asked my fellow librarians at Evanston Public Library to tell it to me true. Is this book as good as I think it is, or am I misconstruing the situation?

And by the way, were this book to win a Caldecott, it would be a magnificent study of contrasts with the previous 2026 winner. Where Fireworks is all man-made spectacle and loud awe, Weinberg’s mountain is quiet nature-based beauty (though with the occasional lightning/firework of its own).

But back to my librarians. Unanimously, they all told me that I was right in the first place. This book combines seasons and senses in a manner never quite seen on the page before, and it does this while displaying literally jaw-dropping art on almost every page. Incredible.

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The True Ugly Duckling: How Hans Christian Andersen Became a Swan by Sandra Nickel, ill. Calvin Nicholls

My true wild card in this bunch. It isn’t that cut paper has never won Caldecotts before. The most striking example of this might be David Wisniewski’s 1996 win for Golem. But 1996 was thirty years ago. That’s a long time to wait for yet another cut paper winner of this depth and exactitude. Even worse, this extraordinary little book has the additional and added burden of being a picture book biography. And if you’ll look at last year’s winners, not a single, solitary book that won was nonfiction in any way, shape or form. To be perfectly frank, Caldecott committees sometimes neglect their nonfiction options in favor of fiction because in the back of their minds they know that nonfiction books can win Sibert Medals n’ such.

But… maybe this book is different. It is, after all, about a children’s literature creator in his own right. Sandra Nickel deftly links the life of Hans Christian Andersen to the fairy tales he’d later go on to pen. And Calvin Nicholls is so deft with is knives and scissors that you feel almost unnerved (note the wrinkles on Hans’s pants on the cover of the book). The fact that Hans Christian Anderson was, himself adept with papercuts and created them all the time, just makes the medium fit the form SO beautifully. Again, this is not a typical Caldecott winner, but I like to dream that maybe it has a chance…

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2027 Newbery Predictions

The Lions’ Run by Sara Pennypacker

Note how much space Jon Klassen left on this cover for shiny, pretty medals. I’m not saying he did it on purpose but I’m not not saying it either. Pennypacker never won a Newbery for Pax. I’m sure we all have different opinions about that fact. For my part, I’m just pleased that she’s continued to push herself and her topics, ultimately creating this remarkable title. In it, Pennypacker somehow manages to take subjects that I would have sworn no one could include in a book for children and makes those topics something we can all discuss. The writing, the character development, and then the action! I think I spent the last 30 pages of this book teetering at the edge of my seat, urging the characters onward. You want a classroom readaloud that’ll knock their socks off? Try this puppy.

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The Moon Without Stars by Chanel Miller

The debate that will surround this book will not be based on its writing. Chanel Miller’s abilities with wordplay cannot be contested. Rather, folks may focus on the fact that the Newbery Medal is typically, and supposed to, be an award for children, yes? Ah, but what is a child specifically? Technically, the Newbery Medal goes to the age of 14. That is why we’ve seen such an array of YA interlopers winning Honors over the years. And this book, for all that its cover looks young, belongs squarely to the middle schoolers of the world. I’m going to greatly enjoy hearing the debates over the coming year surrounding this title and all that it entails. It’s a brilliant one-of-a-kind little piece, but unapologetic in its honesty. Will it be rewarded for that fact, or punished?

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A Scar Like a River by Lisa Graff

And speaking of mature topics! Lisa Graff has been such an interesting author to watch over the years. When first she hit the literary scene, her middle grade novels had a lot of heart and hope to them. She honed her craft. Then, after the pandemic hit, she acquired Long Covid and her writing slowed down. This book is her first in years, and it has an intelligence and gravitas to it in keeping with a Newbery Medal. That isn’t to say that it isn’t also witty and wry as well, but this book is a marvelous combination of mystery and horrifying family drama. There is sexual abuse in this story, but remember again that the Newbery goes to 14 (and it isn’t terribly explicit anyway). To award this book would be to acknowledge the terrible things that a lot of kids go through silently and don’t see in their literature. A beautifully written text with a lot to say.

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You Are Now Old Enough to Hear This by Aaron Starmer

When my son goes to sleepaway camp this summer, there is only one book that I will insist that he take along with him: this one. Those of us who were around to read Starmer’s debut The Riverman probably never quite got it out of our skulls. It’s still in there somewhere. Lurking. But that’s not usually enough to attract the attention of a Newbery committee. For that, you need a little something extra. So I will now tell you that when I reached the end of this book, the title I immediately though of was none other than When You Reach Me. Both books lay clues throughout the story about the larger (stranger) picture, and aren’t afraid to take big swings. The difference here, of course, is that Starmer’s book takes a common feeling amongst kids (the adults and older kids in their family are keeping family secrets from them) and then expands that metaphor to its most extreme possibility. I was floored by how well Starmer managed to juggle so many mysteries and then answer every single one by the story’s close. It’s a deeply satisfying exercise. Unlike anything else your children will ever read.

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And that’s what I have so far! But, obviously, we need to diversify this list quite a bit. Please tell me what you’re seeing and reading that you consider award-worthy so that I can expand my selection for the summer round-up! Cheers!

Filed under: Best Books, Best Books of 2026, Newbery / Caldecott Predictions