Newbery/Caldecott 2026: Spring Prediction Edition

It’s heeeeere! Everyone’s favorite oh-dear-god-why-are-you-talking-about-2026-when-we’re-barely-surviving-2025 post!

That’s the happy news. The sad news is that I broke my streak. Since 2016 I had correctly predicted at least one Newbery or Caldecott winner in my spring prediction posts. That all came crashing to the ground last year. Behold:

2008 spring predictions: I get one Caldecott right (How I Learned Geography)

2009 spring predictions: I get two Newberys right (The Evolution of Calpurnia Tate and The (Mostly) True Adventures of Homer P Figg)

2010 spring predictions: I get one Newbery right (One Crazy Summer)

2011 spring predictions: I get one Newbery right (Inside Out and Back Again)

2012 spring predictions: I get two Newberys right (The One and Only Ivan and Splendors and Glooms), and one Caldecott right (Green).

2013 spring predictions: I get two Newberys right (Doll Bones and One Came Home) and one Caldecott right (Mr. Wuffles).  But pride goeth before the fall.

2014 spring predictions: Zip. Zero. Zilch.

2015 spring predictions: I get two Newberys right (Echo and The War That Saved My Life)

2016 spring predictions: Zero correct, though the commenters do mention two books that would go on to win.

2017 spring predictions: I got one Caldecott right, and that just happened to be the ultimate winner (Wolf In the Snow).

2018 spring predictions: I got one Newbery right (The Book of Boy).

2019 spring predictions: I got two Caldecotts right (Going Down Home With Daddy and Undefeated) and one Newbery right (The New Kid by Jerry Craft).

2020 spring predictions: I got one Caldecott right (Outside In by Deborah Underwood, ill. Cindy Derby) and one Newbery right (Fighting Words by Kimberly Brubaker Bradley).

2021 spring predictions: I got two Caldecotts right (Unspeakable and Watercress) and one Newbery right (Too Bright to See).

2022 spring predictions: I got one Caldecott right (Knight Owl) and one Newbery right (The Last Mapmaker).

2023 spring predictions: I got two Newberys right (The Eyes and the Impossible and Simon Sort of Says).

2024 spring predictions: Nuthin’. Not since 2015 have I done this poorly.

You might try to comfort me by pointing out that I did put the Caldecott winner of 2024 (Chooch Helped) on my fall prediction list, and that would be kind, but it still rankles.

Then I started to wonder… when were the Caldecott and Newbery winners released in 2024? Turns out, a LOT of them were summer and fall. Just look at the Caldecott winners:

• Chooch Helped: October 8
• My Daddy Is a Cowboy: July 12
• Noodles on a Bicycle: August 27
• Up, Up, Ever Up: September 24
• Home in a Lunchbox: June 11

That same excuse doesn’t hold up for the Newbery winners (Across So Many Seas came out in February, for crying out loud) but I don’t tend to read as many Newbery contenders in a given year anyway, so I don’t feel quite as bad for missing out on that particular side of things.

That said, I must, I must, I must continue with my predictions! Why? Well, partly because I enjoy them, and partly because it’s just a really efficient way to direct folks to, what I consider to be, some truly fantastic books in a given year.

Consider the following!

---

2026 Caldecott Predictions

Big Enough by Regina Linke

Nice, right? Now when we predict Caldecott winners, there’s a certain level of surprise that one hopes to attain. And Regina Linke? With this being her first official picture book, she has that surprise element well in hand. Traditional ink and digital painting is what this Taiwanese American author/artist is using to make her illustrations look so very much like Chinese gongbi paintings. It’s hugely distinctive, not really looking like any other picture book out this year. Once you see this title, you can’t help but fall in love with it. The pathos in that ox’s eyes is incredible. The sole fly in the ointment of this book’s chances? A print collection of over 100 illustrated parables from The Oxherd Boy webcomic, The Oxherd Boy: Parables of Love, Compassion, and Community was published in 2024 by Clarkson Potter. If the art from that collection is the same art as you’d find in this book (and there’s no knowing if that’s the case unless you saw both firsthand) then this book will get tripped up on that Caldecott rule that states that in order to be eligible the art cannot have been printed in another book. It will be up to the Caldecott committee to determine where this falls (and I hope it falls in the This Is Completely Eligible category).

---

The History of We by Nikkolas Smith

Aye, that’s a beauty of a book, is it not? You know, I’ve trumpeted Smith as a Caldecott contender before in the past, but so far my trumpeting has fallen by the wayside. Let’s see if a little nonfiction is something this 2026 Caldecott committee has a yen for. Now for the last two or three years here we’ve seen this incredible array of books that dip into our Neolithic and Prehistoric pasts. Smith’s traveling along these lines, but he’s doing something very interesting. Essentially, he’s humanizing our ancestors and he’s doing it with jaw dropping art. Remember what he did with the book Born on the Water? This is art with a similar energy and joy. Look for it.

---

Let’s Be Bees by Shawn Harris

Harris here is my only inclusion on today’s Caldecott list that has won before. If you’ll recall, Harris won a Caldecott Honor for Have You Ever Seen a Flower? That book was created in colored pencils. This book? Crayons. You can read my Q&A with Shawn about this title here if you’re curious about it. In the meantime, this is definitely one of those books where I read it once and thought it was perfectly decent… then read it again. And again. And again. And again until I realized how perfect the book is in its simplicity and form. It’s also a book intended for a younger audience (something easy to ignore when it comes to Caldecott Award contenders). Give this a closer look. It’s the rare beauty that doubles as a toddler and preschool storytime readaloud winner!

---

Our Lake by Angie Kang

Oh my. Well this was a surprise. So I read about five picture books a day during my work week, and that kind of triage leads to all sorts of assumptions about the books I find before me. When I saw the cover of this book it sort of reminded me of Sydney Smith (the way the light plays on the water) while remaining distinctly Angie Kang as well. Then I went and read it and found myself flabbergasted. I’m building it up too much. When you read this, I don’t want you going into it with “award winner” in mind. I want you to go into it the way a kid would. The story is about two brothers preparing to jump into a lake. Their dad, you find out, has died and while the older son is fearless in his jumping, his younger sibling isn’t so sure. Then you get this moment when he finally lets go and… I don’t want to spoil it. Suffice to say, the image of the older brother visible under the water is such a masterpiece of painting that it should probably win a shiny sticker for that alone.

[Note: I wanted to include the newest X. Fang picture book on this list… and then I realized that I’m premiering the cover in two days on this site and it would be unsporting of me to scoop myself like that. Consider this a placeholder then until we get to the summer predictions…

Also, I was quite thrilled at the prospect of including The Interpreter by Olivia Abtahi, illustrated by Monica Arnaldo, on this list today. Then I made the critical error of making sure that Monica lives in the States or, at the very least, was born here. Yeah. No. She is, as we say in the biz, inconveniently Canadian. That book deserves to win All The Things, but will not win Any Of The Things. I am heartbroken.]

---

2026 Newbery Predictions

All the Blues in the Sky by Renée Watson

I just finished this one, and I guess I have Renée Watson to thank for the fact that as I listened to its audiobook of grief and recovery I found myself silently weeping on the streets of Evanston, Illinois on my way to work. It shouldn’t have surprised me any. This slim, handsome little novella manages to pack a huge punch in a limited number of words. The story focuses on 13-year-old Sage and the fact that her best friend died on her birthday. Sage attends a grief group at school, but the levels of her sadness and guilt are palpable. So much so that it’s particularly noteworthy how well Watson comes to a place of hope by the story’s end (particularly since she packs a double punch hit almost at the finale). Keep your eye on this one.

---

Bad Badger: A Love Story by Maryrose Wood, ill. Giulia Ghigini

As you will soon see, badgers are the hot animals of 2025. I’ve compared this particular title in the past to Skunk and Badger, tonally anyway, though I’d say that Rose’s book has a shape and feel entirely of its own. It has a slight undercurrent of melancholy at its core, but no one would ever accuse this book of being depressing. It’s a sad and sweet and ultimately hopeful story about making friends with folks that are very different from you, and with whom you may even share a language barrier. It works entirely on its own internal logic, but you are with it every step of the way. Quiet books often have a hard time making themselves present, but this book? Unforgettable.

---

The Boy Who Lived in a Shell: Snippets for Wandering Minds by John Himmelman

I have this habit of including works of poetry on my Newbery prediction lists. I know, I know. I should just give it up and accept that even though I like poetry, committees as a whole don’t. Not even when the poetry is clever. Not even when the poetry is keen. Not even when you have a book as downright good AND amusing as The Boy Who Lived in a Shell. John Himmelman, buddy, you’ve been holding out on us! Who knew he was so good at verse? Not that I should be surprised. The man excels in surprising readers. You literally never know what he might produce next. A picture book about a dog falling in love with tiny kittens? An early chapter book series about science-minded amphibians? And now you have what I must declare to be my very favorite poetry of 2025 (and there is a LOT of competition in that area, as it happens). It’s sweet and funny and undeniably smart.

---

The Undead Fox of Deadwood Forest by Audrey Hartman

If you’re hearing buzz about this book, you’re not alone. And good news! The Newbery has a longstanding tradition of awarding medals to undead-fox-based-books (Scary Stories for Young Foxes, anyone?). This book isn’t a horror by any means, though. It follows Clare, an Usher of wandering souls, helping them find the afterlife that suits them best. Along the way, he comes across a badger (see what I was saying about badgers being hot in 2025?) who upends his entire world… possibly for the better. I suspect that I will need to ruminate at length on what precisely this book is doing, but I found it a deeply satisfying affair. Its brevity is only matched by its incredible world-building (which is is short, sweet, and arrives at a clip). I’ve yet to meet anyone who hasn’t thoroughly enjoyed this. A perfect readaloud for a classroom too. You’ll have kids on the edges of their seats.

---

Will’s Race for Home by Jewell Parker Rhodes

Was there ever any doubt? And before you claim I’m including this because One Big Open Sky won a Newbery Honor last year (and was also about Black exodusters) I’m going to hand you a great big plate of NOPE. I am including this because I thoroughly enjoyed it and I think it’s incredibly successful in what it does. So let’s pause for a moment and try to sum up what qualities a Newbery winner must possess to win the big award. Personally, I think it’s not individual traits, but a combination. First and foremost, it has to have heart. Not pablum. Not syrup. Not saccharine phrases. Real, legitimate heart that it has earned. Next, it has to take us somewhere where we’ve never been. It needs to have beautiful language. It needs to surprise us, engage us, and make us think, “Dang! That was GOOD!” Most of all, it can’t be a slog. If you keep glancing at the book, trying to determine how many pages you have left, you’re doomed before you even begin. A great Newbery contender needs all these elements in some kind of a unique combination. This book? It may as well be the textbook definition for “Great Newbery Contenders”. It has absolutely everything and it’s a great deal of fun to boot.

---

And on that note, I’m out! Like I say, it’s early in the year and the likelihood that I’ve selected any of the winners is probably slim. That doesn’t stop us from having fun talking about them, though, right? So what are you enjoying right now? What floats your boat? What do you think has a good strong chance at the gold?

Filed under: Newbery / Caldecott Predictions