Newbery/Caldecott 2025: Fall Prediction Edition
Folks, you just never know what people are going to miss.
Under normal circumstances I have a very steady schedule when it comes to my Newbery/Caldecott Predictions. The spring predictions come out around March 15th, the summer around June 15th, the fall around September 15th and the final prediction edition is around January 15th or so. This year, my September was a bit wonky. I got busy. I got distracted. And ultimately I failed to remember to do my fall prediction edition on this site.
Lo and behold, this lapse was noticed! Not only noticed but called out. I was touched and gratified to find that folks missed it and wanted to know when it might come out. So today’s posting may be a little late, but in the grand scheme of things I’m just happy that other folks remembered at all. 2024 came relatively close to becoming the year I forgot to do a fall prediction post for the Newberys and Caldcotts. Whoopsie!
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On that note, here’s how I’m seeing things shaping up at this point in time. I’ve added things. I’ve subtracted them. I have read Heavy Medals. I have read Calling Caldecott. I have discussed many of these books on a committee of my own. And all that said, I am DEFINITELY missing things on this list. Please bear that in mind as you read it through:
2025 Caldecott Predictions
Being Home by Traci Sorrell, ill. Michaela Goade
a.k.a. The book that refuses to be forgotten, in spite of the fact that it had a May publication date. Goade isn’t just any old artist. She’s already won the Caldecott once before. That’s no small thing. And winners tend to stay winners, at least when it comes to ALA awards. For my part, the color pink is the entire point of this book. Watch where it appears. Follow it. Pay attention to where it goes. It’s one of those marvelous mixes of text and image where one element plays off the other with ease. It’s hard to be both clever and subtle but this book pulls it off. Please read the Calling Caldecott consideration of this book by Annisha Jeffries here.
Chooch Helped by Andrea L. Rogers, ill. Rebecca Lee Kunz
Yeah, well I have to have some surprises on this list, don’t I? Nobody’s talking about this one yet? That’s because it’s an October release. Nobody’s seen it. I’ve seen it. I think it’s remarkable and not in a flashy way either. This is one of those under-the-radar titles that may well pop up and win things come award season. The art is an incredible mix of Cherokee iconography and traditional motifs and symbols (both the author and illustrator identify as Cherokee), all integrated seamlessly into the story. Part of the reason this book works as well as it does is that everything about Cherokee life is built into both the text and the art without having to tell rather than show. It’s an elegant book when you get right down to it, but it also taps into that older sister frustration with a little toddler sibling that feels SO real. I mean, just look at that cover. Doubt me not.
Home in a Lunchbox by Cherry Mo
It’s been so deeply satisfying watching people discover this book. Whenever you read a picture book and it’s so good that you think it might win awards, you have that moment of doubt. What if it’s just me? What if I’m seeing something in this title that isn’t even there? Then, when other people read it and react the way that you have, it’s a moment of pure joy. This book is an amazing mix of silent spreads, with the text used mainly to forward the plot as a prop more than anything else. Because of the art of this book, you understand completely what the title means. You feel this girl’s connection to home and family and the things she both loves and misses. Now as I mentioned in my review of the book, I still believe there’s a two-page spread missing from this title, but that’s not a deal breaker for me. This has that ineffable mix of both heart and technical artistic prowess that can be a very hard thing to find sometimes.
Joyful Song: A Naming Story by Lesléa Newman, ill. Susan Gal
Susan Gal is long overdue for a Caldecott. However, that fact in and of itself is not a good reason for giving her one. What is a good reason is this book. I am now going to take a look at the Calling Caldecott summary of this book by Shoshana Flax and shamelessly quote it on why this art is extraordinary:
“The amount of space being taken up by the illustrations varies constantly. Sometimes the white space framing the art tells us where to focus … Sometimes the white space serves as a road. And sometimes it lets us know we’re moving from one moment to another: within one spread, big sibling Zachary might talk to a neighbor in a vignette, and then, after a white-space pause, keep walking with rest of the family. Once we get inside the synagogue, with its beautiful stained-glass windows affecting the shape and tone of the light, there’s less white space — though on most spreads, there’s still some, making room for the text to be placed just right for pacing.”
Meaningful AND chock full of artistic skill and thoughtful design? Yes and please.
My Daddy Is a Cowboy by Stephanie Seales, ill. C.G. Esperanza
This one’s an interesting case. I’d say that 95% percent of the librarians I show it to go gaga. That last 5% though? They’re not fans and they’re not shy about telling you that they’re not fans. So really, this is going to come down to the Caldecott committee and what percentage is fan vs. dismissive. For my part, this is what you’d get if you took a typical father/daughter story and then cranked it up to eleven. The art is incredible but it wouldn’t go anywhere were it not for the additional heart. It’s vibrant and incredible and one cannot also help but notice that in a year where Black country music has been on the minds of a lot of people, this book winning a/the Caldecott feels almost perfect.
Touch the Sky by Stephanie V.W. Lucianovic, ill. Chris Park
So right about now the Best Books of the Year lists are coming out. We’ve seen some from Publishers Weekly and Barnes and Nobles as if this writing. The PW list? Pretty good. I’d have switched out more than few of their titles for ones I particularly like (they were NOT interested in whether or not kids would enjoy some of those selections), but we all have our individual tastes. The Barnes and Nobles list is . . . a list. And that is all I am going to say about that. But the one thing those two lists do have in common is that they both missed this book this year. I sure as heck won’t. Chris Park isn’t just doing incredible things with movement and color on these pages. Look at those facial expressions for a while. It’s a truly and legitimately beautiful book with all kinds of details worked in.
Two Together by Brendan Wenzel
I’ll never be able to lose this book from this list. Why? Because it’s classy as all get out. Indeed, it almost feels like Wenzel is bragging to his fellow illustrators. “Look what I can do! Two different styles, side-by-side, for almost an entire book!” As a kind of companion to They All Saw a Cat (which you do NOT have to be familiar with to enjoy this book) this title plays with visual perceptions. Not simply how the dog and the cat see the world (though it does show that very well) but also how your own perception of the dog and the cat changes over the course of the book. The more you get to know them, the more fleshed out they become. It’s a clever and almost imperceptible shift, but an important one.
The Yellow Bus by Loren Long
If you’re anything like me, you initially read this book, considered it carefully, and then dismissed it. To be frank, this title felt a little overly familiar to me on a first read. Yet on subsequent readings (during one of which I read this book out loud which made a WORLD of difference) I came to realize just how legitimately complex and thought out the book is. It’s not just the technical prowess (though that is part of it). It’s that amazing mix of an old-fashioned trope placed alongside a whole busload of empathy. Empathy for the unhoused, the old, and the very young in particular. Empathy for a kind of vehicle that simply can’t last forever. Add in the near black and white illustrations (bringing to mind Kitten’s First Full Moon if you want to talk about Caldecott Award winners unafraid of limited color palettes) and you have yourself a legitimately cool winner.
2025 Newbery Predictions
Black Girl You Are Atlas by Renée Watson, ill. Ekua Holmes
You’re going to see a lot of children’s books that lean into Black trauma on these Newbery and Caldecott lists. And while this book has its serious moments, I consider it a palate cleanser and the kind of counter-narrative we all need right now. Still it’s the writing that blows you away. As I’ve mentioned before, how dare Renée Watson be so good at writing poetry when the rest of us are just scraping by? Share the talent! Please! Ah well. At least we get cool books like this one that we can dip into any time we want. Some people worry that this skews to old. Please. I’ve seen YA titles win Newberys with alarming frequency. At least this book is interested to both young and old alike.
The Enigma Girls: How Ten Teenagers Broke Ciphers, Kept Secrets, and Helped Win World War II by Candace Fleming
To place this prediction in context, I’ve been rooting for Candy to get a Newbery for years and years. I don’t know if this is the year it will happens, but at the very least this book has got to be considered an incredible contender. Watch as Ms. Fleming deftly writes about ten young women, and manages to distinguish their personalities all while relating both the highs and the lows of working to break the Nazi ciphers. In anyone else’s hands, this end product would be an enormous mess. With Candy? It’s a well-ordered machine. Just the way I like it.
I’m Sorry You Got Mad by Kyle Lukoff, ill. Julie Kwon
Oh ho ho ho! A picture book on a Newbery prediction list? Can such a thing be? It can where Kyle Lukoff is involved. Essentially, the man managed to put together a hilarious book told entirely in letters and notes but with character development, heart, and a not-so-slight dig at toxic masculinity. Seriously, this is complex stuff. Picture books, if they win Newberys, win almost entirely due to heart. This book HAS heart, it just also has some complex writing along the way. Kids get this book. Adults get this book. And just to convince you that it deserves to win, here’s my favorite spread:
Mid Air by Alicia D. Williams
This is, I believe, the only verse novel on my list. When it comes to my predictions this year, the name of the game is seemingly-simple-complexity. That is to say, I like it when authors make their books look simple and sound simple but when you start reading them you realize how difficult they had to have been to write. This book is a perfect example of that. In this story you have Isaiah, who feels guilt over the death of his friend Darius. Meanwhile he’s potentially losing his friend Drew, and that’s all before an additional act of violence pushes Isaiah further into himself. The characters in this book are hella realistic, practically leaping off the page. There’s a reason this woman won a Newbery Honor before, people.
Not Quite a Ghost by Anne Ursu
At first I was telling everyone that this book had the strongest first chapter of the year. Now, months after I read it, I’m doubling down on that statement (with the close runner-up being The Long Way Around by Anne Nesbet). I was attempting to explain the plot of this book to some adults at a Halloween party the other day (seemed appropriate), and do you know that at least one of them was unfamiliar with The Yellow Wallpaper by Charlotte Perkins Gilman? Looks like we need to get a ton of people reading this book if only to introduce them to the classics. Read it!
Shark Teeth by Sherri Winston
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I almost never include books on this list that I haven’t read. This is next on my To Be Read pile, and you should have heard the sheer amounts of praised it garnered when I served on my library’s 101 Great Books for Kids committee this year. I promise, I’ll read it next, but in the meantime it’s going to take up some space here. Listen to Kirkus who said it had, “A deeply satisfying tale with an irresistible protagonist, and PW who said it was, “potent and powerful.”
A Tree Is a Community by David L. Harrison, ill. Kate Cosgrove
Even though 2024 was a surprisingly strong year for poetry, this book is the closest I shall come to including poetry on today’s list. Harrison does a remarkable job of mixing science with lyricism in his writing. Again, this qualifies as a picture book on a Newbery list, but read this book through once and you’ll understand my reasoning.
The Wrong Way Home by Kate O’Shaughnessy
Girl, do NOT get in that van! And what’s up with the private detectives of the world? Don’t they have any common sense? These are the kinds of questions you’ll be asking after you read 2024’s best little Escape From a Cult middle grade novel. This book is a marvelous example of how to place the child reader in the child protagonist’s head. Now watch as disillusionment slowly starts to fall over the course of the story. Probably the finest unreliable narrator of the year.
I’ll place the predictions for the other award contenders in a post next week. In the meantime, tell me what I absolutely have to read at this point. There’s still time!!!
Filed under: Best Books, Best Books of 2024, Newbery / Caldecott Predictions, Uncategorized
About Betsy Bird
Betsy Bird is currently the Collection Development Manager of the Evanston Public Library system and a former Materials Specialist for New York Public Library. She has served on Newbery, written for Horn Book, and has done other lovely little things that she'd love to tell you about but that she's sure you'd find more interesting to hear of in person. Her opinions are her own and do not reflect those of EPL, SLJ, or any of the other acronyms you might be able to name. Follow her on Twitter: @fuseeight.
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Ms. Yingling says
Agree on THE WRONG WAY HOME. My students have loved it. Also, an 8th grade boy who has spent two years reading only horror books declared that Choldenko’s THE TENTH MISTAKE OF HANK HOOPERMAN was the best book he’d ever read. It’s been popular with adults, but clearly speaks to the actual demographic as well, so I’d definitely pick that one up if you haven’t already.
Betsy Bird says
You are not alone! So I am determined to read that one soon. This is a pretty good case of one of my colleagues reading it and having a “meh” reaction, so I just didn’t pick it up. Enough folks are cooing over it now, though, so I’m going to have to see what all the fuss is about!
Amy Sears says
Do read it it’s one of my favorite books of the year. Also so happy that you included Shark Teeth and Enigma Girls loved both of those
Lily Resnik says
So, so delighted to wake up to this today, Betsy! I’ve been a religious reader of your prediction posts for over a decade now, beginning when I was a Newbery-obsessed fourth grader. I greatly look forward to them each season, whenever they arrive. 🙂
Betsy Bird says
Awww! I am hugely touched that you’ve read me that long!
Now, if you’ll excuse me, I’ll just go over here and deal with the fact that you’ve read me since FOURTH grade. Wow wow wow wow wow.
Jeane Campbell says
I would have included NOT NOTHING by Gayle Forman. I gave that book a 5 star rating.
Also. would include SLUGFEST by Gordon Korman. My other five star book of this year.
Choldenko’s THE TENTH MISTAKE OF HANK HOOPERMAN was a slow start and ended strong. Not as good as the first two mentioned.
None of your suggestions are on my radar. They are now. Thanks.
Betsy Bird says
I was a big fan of Slugfest. So was the EPL 101 Great Books for Kids committee, since we included that book on our list this year. The other two? I’ve not read them yet.
Laura Gardner says
Not Nothing!!!!! YES. It’s so fantastic. I have already forced a student and a teacher friend to read it and both loved it. (btw – Tig by Heather Smith gets my vote for best book written by a Canadian author that would be Newbery material if the author were American).
Jenny A. says
DRAWN ONWARD by Nayeri/Rockefeller for the Caldecott, perhaps? I feel like wordless/almost wordless books are natural Caldecott contenders because the art is doing so much heavy lifting already (although the spare text is poignant and clever and effective).
I’d love to see TOUCH THE SKY and HOME IN A LUNCH BOX get some love, and THE YELLOW BUS too. Goade is always in the mix. I wouldn’t have thought of I’M SORRY YOU GOT MAD for a Newbery but it is absolutely genius, and essential (as is Lukoff’s other picture book this year, JUST WHAT TO DO. Wait, he had three this year – There’s No Such Thing As Vegetables!).
I’m glad to see NOT QUITE A GHOST still on your Newbery list – it twins chronic illness and a ghost story in a way that places both firmly in the horror genre, deeply uncomfortable/unsettling. It has stuck with me since January.
Betsy Bird says
DRAWN ONWARD could definitely be a candidate, you’re right. Plus it’s just doggone clever.
Angela Reynolds says
I just read “Chooch Helps” this morning and I have to agree- the palette, the varied perspectives, and the perfect pacing stood out for me. The board cover and end pages add to the whole beauty of the book. The Cherokee elements are so beautifully integrated that they are noticed, and you don’t have to understand them to know they are important. Then the afterward explains some of that and you realize you have to read it again to get even further involved. It’s a dang beauty.
Betsy Bird says
Oo. I kinda want to steal the phrase “It’s a dang beauty” from you. That’s good copy. And I’m so glad I’m not alone in seeing it!