Newbery & Caldecott 2009: Predict-o-rama

Wabi Sabi by Mark Reibstein, illustrated by Ed Young – I’m the kind of person who always bets that the Oscar will go to the most likely frontrunner too.  Now the last time a book that you had to hold vertically won an award it was back in 1996 for Tops and Bottoms by Janet Stevens.  That book really used the format well, and Wabi Sabi faces justifying its vertical state.  I have little doubt that dedicated committee members could find a good reason for it where I falter.  The other bit of trouble is whether or not they consider the book something a reader can relate to.  That said, I think it has an extraordinary shot.

WHAT SHOULD WIN BUT WON’T

We Are the Ship by Kadir Nelson – Hush hush hush, now now.  I wanted this book to finally FINALLY give Kadir the gold medal he so richly deserves as well.  But sitting in on various picture book debates this year I came to the slow horrific realization that this title doesn’t stand a chance.  Think about it.  Last year’s winner Hugo Cabret was a wild choice as a “picture book”, which (if I know my committees) means that on a subconscious level the Caldecotters will be pulling back and going for old-fashioned fare to give their awards to.  Books that are without a doubt “picture books”.  No muss.  No fuss.  Add onto that the fact that Nelson’s pictures do not interact with the text one jot.  A Caldecott winner is a book that, if there are words, works with them seamlessly so that they are one perfect whole.  But the gorgeous paintings in this book often do not apply to the text on their opposite pages.  You could remove every image in this book and still understand the text without a smidgen of difficulty.  The images here are some of the finest of the year, but if we look at what defines a Caldecott winner then technicalities are going to keep yet another Nelson title out of the running in the end.

Wonder Bear by Tao Nyeu – I argued earlier that Savvy was very much a first novel and wouldn’t win anything.  Similarly Wonder Bear is very much a first picture book and won’t get anything quite yet.  It’s beautiful, no question.  Haunting even.  One of the few books I actually kept for my own personal collection this year.  But when push comes to shove the story is just a little too light and airless to support a medal as heavy as a Caldecott.  I have little doubt, however, that Nyeu’s future works will place their feet firmly on the ground and garner a whole host of accolades and kisses.

HONOR BOOKS

The Little Yellow Leaf by Carin Berger – The picture book I kick myself the hardest for not reviewing in 2008.  I have no idea what is wrong with me.  I can only hope and pray that the committee has more sense than I did and gives it a great big beautiful shiny sticker right front and center.

The House in the Night by Susan Marie Swanson, illustrated by Beth Krommes – I almost made this my out-and-out Gold winner, but Wabi Sabi just barely beat it.  I’ve heard people argue against this one, but their arguments never quite stick.  It’s a beaut.

Old Bear by Kevin Henkes – I actually hesitated to include this.  Not because I don’t think it has a fair shot, but because it’s a difficult title to discuss.  Simple books always are.  I’m not sure why.  But for beauty alone, this probably has a very good shot.  Twould be a bit nice for Greenwillow if this and Berger’s book won together, don’t you think?

THOSE LOONEY WILD CARD BOOKS THAT COULD WIN IT ALL

In a Blue Room by Jim Averbeck, illustrated by Tricia Tusa – I know the pros.  I know the cons.  And I know that if this book took a flying leap for a medal it would surprise no one.  Tusa has this title firmly in hand and Averbeck’s first picture book is dead on.  The only trouble it faces is from people who say of it, “But the room isn’t blue!”  Its medal possibilities lie entirely on that crux.  We’ll see if it overcomes or succumbs in the end.

Nic Bishop Frogs by Nic Bishop – What would happen if a book of photographs won the Caldecott?  Take a close look at the Caldecott’s definition.  At no point does it declare that the “illustrations” must be drawn.  What is an illustration?  Can a photo be one?  If so, then Bishop’s book should clearly be the first.

Abe’s Honest Words by Doreen Rappaport, illustrated by Kadir Nelson – If my argument against We Are the Ship winning a Caldecott hinges on the committee’s subconscious rejection of getting too creative in their choices, then why not also take that a step further and say that their subconscious minds will also feel inclined to give Mr. Nelson SOMETHING for all his amazing work this year.  The best bet for that is Abe’s Honest Words, which does not match We Are the Ship in terms of content, but at the very least is a wonderful example of how well the man can adapt his images to other people’s text.

That Book Woman by Heather Henson, illustrated by David Small – This is the very definition of a dark horse contender.  It got good reviews, but didn’t make a huge splash.  Yet it’s a remarkably strong story coupled with what may well be some of the most beautiful watercolors Small has ever created.  The kicker is that at its heart it’s about a courageous librarian, and it always feels a little suspicious when librarian committees offer such books awards.  I don’t think anyone could pick this up and not say that it was a lovely lovely little story, though.

How I Learned Geography by Uri Shulevitz – I have not given up hope that this will prove a small, quiet, surprising winner.  You cannot deny its beauty, power, or succinctness.  This book says more by saying less, and is a brilliant example of what a picture book should be.  I would be well pleased if this won.

UPDATE: A River of Words by Jen Bryant, illustrated by Melissa Sweet – Monica reminded me that this was to be one of my Wild Card choices.  And why not?  It’s beautiful, with great text and a wonderful mix of word and image. Plus the design of the endpapers?  [kisses fingers to the sky]

CARNEGIE

WHAT WILL WIN: I’m just gonna go out on a limb here . . . uh . . . Weston Woods?  Honestly, when will we all just drop the pretense and rename the Carnegie Awards the Weston Woods Awards?  Enough with this charade.

PRINTZ

WHAT WILL WIN: The Hunger Games, sure.  But I suspect that if it gets anything it’ll just be an honor.  Just a guess, though.

GEISEL

WHAT WILL WIN: Did you know that if you scramble the letters in the name “Mo Willems” you come up with “Well, is mom”?

BATCHELDER

Uh-oh.  Did I read any translations this year?  [scans shelf]  Nope.  Anyone have a favorite for this? UPDATE: Tarie has mentioned Moribito, which would be a truly killer winner (no pun intended).  Though Trisha makes a good point about giving it up to two Japanese manga-ish books in two years.  It still has my money, though.

ODYSSEY

Er . . . um . . . doggone it.

SIBERT

WHAT WILL WIN: We Are the Ship by Kadir Nelson.  Whew!  I wouldn’t mind seeing an award or two go to Astronaut Handbook, United Tweets of America, or Boys of Steel either, though.

SCHNEIDER FAMILY BOOK AWARD

WHAT WILL WIN: Possibly She Touched the World, which is also a big Sibert contender. Miss Spitfire by Sarah Miller also has an excellent chance.  We shall see.

UPDATE: Laughably wrong is the name of the game here.  So what did I get correct?  Well, Moribito did win the Batchelder, so yay.  Sean Qualls finally got his first Coretta Scott King Honor.  I named most of the Caldecotts, but definitely not in the right order.   And I completely forgot to mention the Frazee book, which makes me mad.  As for the Newbery, I mentioned The Graveyard Book as an Honor (whoops) and said that The Underneath wouldn’t win the gold.  Which it didn’t.  However I completely missed the Margarita Engle book because her last one was so upper YA.  I’m just glad it’s still sitting on my shelf at home.  Savvy was a surprise, so I was way way off there.  And After Tupac, which I liked, got more loving than I credited it for.  God, I love these awards!