Newbery/Caldecott 2027: Fall Prediction Edition

Did you notice that the longlist for Young People’s Literature via the National Book Awards was released yesterday? Generally speaking, the National Book Awards are a terrible predictor of the ALA Awards. First off, they’re usually heavily weighted towards YA (sophisticated adults like sophisticated writing, doncha know). Second, they have a terrible track record when it comes to the outright Newbery Award winner. I think I’m correct in saying that the last time a National Book Award winner and a Newbery winner were the same, it was Holes in 1998. This year, however, there are two books on the list that strike me as VERY serious Newbery candidates. So much so that I can’t help but feel that it would be awfully nice if we could repeat that old 1998 experience. Hey, stranger things have occurred.

Today, though, we’ll look at where the predictions have fallen out over the course of the year. While we ponder, I would like to highly recommend Travis Jonker’s posts on Substack where he’s digging into the data of these Caldecott award winners. Then too there’s Heavy Medal, doing due diligence on the Newbery front. Calling Caldecott has entered the fray as well.

You’ll notice that I’ve removed some predictions from earlier posts (they may yet return for the final prediction) and added a couple fall releases that I hadn’t seen until now. This list fluctuates constantly. You never know what’ll end up on it next.

2027 Caldecott Predictions

Bing’s Cherries by Livia Blackburne, ill. Julie Kuo

Honestly, I’m a little surprised that I’m keeping this on here. It’s definitely the kind of book that blows you away when you first encounter it, but then could be forgotten by the year’s end. For this book to win, the committee will have seen it early in the process. There will then have to be people on that committee who not only remember it, but legitimately feel that the mixing of art and text are so superior that they’re willing to fight for them when the time comes. I interviewed Kuo and Blackburne about this tall tale update to not simply Paul Bunyan but the legacy of Chinese immigrant workers in America, a couple months ago, and I honestly don’t think awards were on their mind when they made it. Boy, it sure would be nice to see it win, though…

Goldfinches by Mary Oliver, ill. Melissa Sweet

This is a much more standard Caldecott contender, partly because the creator has won Honors before. It’s also very much Sweet’s usual style, which could help her as easily as it could hinder. What Caldecott committees love more than anything else is for a relatively new artist to blow them away with a style or type of book they haven’t seen before. Sweet’s already familiar to them, so what is required here is for committee members to notice how much incredible work she has put into making this as scientifically accurate AND beautiful as possible. To be perfectly frank, I haven’t seen much in the way of nonfiction or informational books that I’d consider serious contenders this time around. This book is the closest I’ve found to date. Feel free to read my discussion with Melissa about the book here.

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I Am a Mountain by Steven Weinberg

I am concerned. With its June release, you would think that this book would be on all the Mock Caldecott lists by this point. Yet I worry that its subtle but beautiful cover is too subtle. I love this book, not simply because of the art, but because it ties senses to seasons in a way I’ve literally never seen done before. But yeah, it’s the pretty pretty picture that truly wow. If I don’t see an uptick in buzz I might have to excise this from my final prediction list, but let’s give it one more shot. You can read my interview with Steven about the book here.

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The Muéganos by Jaque Jours

A long shot, but let’s remember that the Brooklyn Book Festival tapped Jaque Jours to do their official poster this year. This gal is going places. And this book, for all that it’s a little brown, is remarkable. The metaphor itself is phenomenal, of course, but what really pushes it over the edge is the systematic way in which Jours changes her artistic medium throughout the text. I keep coming back to the broken ceramic (which was an actual dish that Jours smashed and then painted on for this story). Interestingly, I have heard a little buzz surrounding this one, so maybe I’m not alone. You can read my review of the book here.

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The Ribbon by Tessa Blackham

Sometimes you just have a feeling. I felt it the very first time I laid eyes on Blackham’s work. Now here we have a true debut. There’s something so incredibly kid-friendly, while still being completely sophisticated, about this book. The mixed media on the page is great, absolutely, but Blackham has a particular gift that she isn’t afraid to whip out: heart. A true Caldecott winner is the book that manages to combine technical prowess with something a kid would actually enjoy AND it has an emotional core. Blackham’s book has all these things. I would be very much surprised if it didn’t garner some kind of acknowledgement by a major organization by the year’s end. You can read my full review of the book here.

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Snow Geese Season by Angela Burke Kunkel, ill. E.B. Goodale

Meet my fall release inclusion. If you haven’t seen it yet, don’t worry. It’s slated to release later this month (September 29th). Goodale is also well positioned for a win too. Like our last winner (Catia Chien) Goodale has been paying her dues for a couple of years here. She’s new enough that some people still aren’t familiar with her work, but she also has some serious name recognition with those in the know. Until now I’d say that she hadn’t been handed anything significantly Caldecott-esque. That all changes with this book. Kunkel’s story about a boy and his grandfather rising early in the morning to watch for the annual arrival of the snow geese is Caldecott catnip. Slow build. Beautiful illustrations. A grandfather/grandson connection. It won’t make you cry, but it may just take your breath away.

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While We’re Here by Anne Wynter, ill. Micha Archer

Should you be wondering, yes. This book is still, without a doubt, my frontrunner. And I could tell you precisely why, but as luck would have it I don’t have to. Travis Jonker said it all for me in his recent Caldecott Critique. I don’t usually cede my time, but when the man’s right, he’s right. You can read my review of the book here (I too have much to say about it).

At this point in the proceedings, we should probably bring up the Night Ride question. This was the talk of the last ALA conference, and it’s a real conundrum. If you’re familiar with the book then you’ll know that creator Chris Myers drew the outlines for the stained glass images on the pages and then commissioned them to be made in Guadalajara. But does that disqualify him? Did he “make” the art if someone else did the stained glass? I asked this to one person who pointed out that Yuyi Morales got a Caldecott Honor for Viva Frida, back in the day, but she didn’t entirely make that doll by hand. Is this a similar case? In the end it’ll all come down to the committee’s choices on the matter. Personally, I think it’s a truly gorgeous book, and may well be eligible. I just don’t think the storytelling works without the context of the Author’s Note.

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2027 Newbery Predictions

The Lions’ Run by Sara Pennypacker

I gave a presentation the other day on some of the Best Children’s Books of 2026 (so far). When I got to my description of this book, I found myself once more saying the phrase, “It doesn’t sound like it’s a middle grade title, but it really is!” Pennypacker threads that needle with aplomb, and her writing on the page is spectacular. Again, this was a release early in the year, so I worry that some of the early excitement over it may have died down a little. Even so, I can still remember so many details in this book with vivid clarity, months and months after reading it. Slow burn bravery. You can read my interview with Sara about the book here.

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Listen to the Girls by Chrystal D. Giles

There are books that win Newberys because their prose sings like a chorus of angels on the page and then there are books that are “distinguished” not because of pretty metaphors but because of how expertly they tackle previous untouchable subject matter. At its heart, this is a book about grooming, and how to recognize when friendly behavior from a teacher crosses a line. The way that Giles parcels out the information on the pages of this story using the verse format is skilled beyond measure. Incredible work.

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The Moon Without Stars by Chanel Miller

That National Book Award nomination it just received was very satisfying, don’t you think? Miller’s title is an interesting consideration. Its cover looks juv, but the contents inside are 100% proto-YA. But with the Newbery potentially going to 14, I suspect that this book is perfectly eligible. Just the same, if I were the publisher I’d see to it that the January 2027 paperback release change the jacket. Yes, I know that Miller created it herself, but it reads young, and when it wins a Newbery Honor or Award (which, at this point, I think it’s almost guaranteed to do) you’re going to get a lot of peeved parents out there when they try to read this aloud at bedtime. Yet the language language language… can anything compete with this? So well done. You can read my review of it here.

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The Queen’s Granddaughter by Diane Zahler

Every once in a while I like to include on this list a book that people legitimately love. Do you remember how people felt when they read The War That Saved My Life for the very first time? That’s the response I’m seeing with Zahler’s latest. Zahler, who has plugged away with a steady stream of middle grade novels for years now, has created a work of historical fiction that is a cut above. It’s exciting and interesting and so much fun. This is precisely the kind of book that swoops in from left field to nab an award of some sort because it lodges itself in the hearts and minds of its readers.

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A Scar Like a River by Lisa Graff

There weren’t many books I was disappointed to see weren’t included in the National Book Awards longlist this year, but I was a bit sad that this one didn’t make the final cut. Much as Listen to the Girls tackles hard subject matter, so too does Graff. But in Graff’s case the book is as much a mystery as anything else. A scar. A funeral. Christmas lights. There are elements here that slowly add up, and the way in which Graff negotiates her reveals is remarkable. One of the finest fish in the sea. You can read my review of the book here.

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Shook by Julian Randall

Ah! Okay, first and foremost if you have not heard the audiobook production of this (read by Randall himself in what sounds like a basement somewhere) do so immediately if not sooner. For all that the sound quality isn’t the greatest, Randall’s read is sublime. He knows precisely how to pull out the poetry on these pages. Sometimes verse novels just feel like they were an easy way for an author to write a big book without a lot of words. Randall, in contrast, makes every poem in this book FEEL like a poem. And yes, I hate to say it, but this is the best basketball novel I have ever read (with apologies to Kwame Alexander). This is my Newbery frontrunner right now, people! Check out my interview with Julian about his book here.

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You Are Now Old Enough to Hear This by Aaron Starmer

Much like I Am the Mountain, I feel like Starmer’s book isn’t getting the serious credit that it most richly deserves. Imagine When You Reach Me but creepy. That’s this book. At its heart, it’s about the secrets families keep from their youngest members… just taken to a wild extreme. Anyone who ever read Starmer’s previous novel The Riverman will be aware that the man has a brain that doesn’t quite work like anyone else’s. I still believe in this book. I hope others do too. Heavy Medal discussed this book just today, as it happens. And there was my review of it as well.

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That’s all from me, but I’m still reading everything I can. Let me know what you’re reading and what I missed (intentionally or accidentally). It’s a great year!

Filed under: Best Books, Best Books of 2026, Newbery / Caldecott Predictions