Newbery & Caldecott 2010: Predict-o-rama
Someone recently blogged that they had seen someone at the last Midwinter ALA Conference wearing a t-shirt that simply read, “But is it distinguished?” As librarian in-jokes go, I think that is by far one of the subtlest. Determining the distinguished from the merely awesome is no mean feat, and my heart goes out to this year’s various committees. That said, I like to predict what will win, if only because I like surprises, and if I already think I know what will win I’ll be constantly surprised come next Monday.
You know the drill. I predict the winners. The books I predict don’t win, but some of my honors make the list. I’ve been doing these predictions for about three years now and the only year I got close was 2008. 2009, in contrast, was lamentable. But I like doing it. It’s fun. So let’s go to the big board!
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NEWBERY
WHAT WILL WIN THE AWARD
When You Reach Me by Rebecca Stead
Even the most buzzed children’s book of the year isn’t a surefire thing. In fact, there is an unspoken understanding that the more buzz a book gets, the less likely it will be to win in the end. I have noticed something about Stead’s title, however, that may work entirely in its favor. For one thing, people love it with a passion I’ve not seen in quite some time. They adamantly adore this book. It’s the kind of love usually reserved for the fans of Kate DiCamillo or Mem Fox. They honestly and truly believe that this is one of the best books they have ever read and they are willing to fight for it. And if I were make a guess, there will be quite a few Newbery committee members who feel the same. The fervor of their discussions will be rooted in this deep and abiding love. I’m bringing emotion into a decision that should be based entirely on literary merit (which this book also has) but I tell you now that merit will take you only so far. Love is the answer. And while the committee will hash over various points (probably the ones Jonathan Hunt keeps bringing up, if I don’t miss my guess), in the end when it’s 1:00 in the morning and the votes are counted, folks are going to go with the books that make them happiest. And When You Reach Me, whatever else you might say of it, makes people very very happy.
WHAT WILL WIN THE HONORS
Claudette Colvin: Twice Toward Justice by Phillip Hoose
The last time a National Book Award winner for Young People’s Literature also won a Newbery was 1998 and the book was Holes. This is a true fact, but you could easily counter it by pointing out that most of the winners, and for that matter nominees, in the last few years have skewed young adult and were therefore ineligible. When I read Claudette Colvin, I was even searching to see whether or not this year’s Newbery committee might consider it too old. In point of fact, it is not. This is a perfectly good book for 12-year-olds. It is also remarkably distinguished. So my dubbing it an Honor book rather than the out-and-out winner may have more to do with superstition than cold clear judgment. Heck, Jonathan Hunt at Heavy Medal has already dubbed it his own pick. Indeed, it is extraordinary and if ever a non-fiction book deserved to win the award proper (since our last one came out in 1988 and that was more than 20 years ago, people) it would be this. But if the committee is not filled with non-fictions lovers (or even non-fiction sympathizers), it won’t get to the end. And truth be told, I’m cynical enough to believe that it won’t quite be able to break through that final vote.
Where the Mountain Meets the Moon by Grace Lin
I’ve been decrying the fact that Lin hasn’t won a Newbery yet for years. She does something in each one of her chapter books that’s remarkably difficult. Mainly, she creates fun and interesting stories. I happen to be in favor of that. Her books feel like classics when you pick them up. They just do. Besides, I had a premonition that her lovely purple cover would end up with a shiny silver sticker on it of some sort. So I’ll just assume that sticker is a Newbery Honor. Unless, of course, she gets a Caldecott instead. Hey man, in the age of Hugo Cabret, you don’t know what is and isn’t impossible anymore.
WILD CARDS
Wild Things by Clay Carmichael
The wildest wild card of them all. It’s a sneaky little devil. Could just be biding its time all quiet like until the Monday announcement rolls around and it POUNCES! I liked it. Some are lukewarm on it. But I won’t find my own jaw agape if I hear its name called amongst the Honors. Surely not.
Tropical Secrets: Holocaust Refugees in Cuba by Margarita Engle
Every year we forget about Engle, but she’s always right there, just bubbling below the surface. She’s also one of those writers who reads very well when you pick her novels apart. Remember the surprise Honor win of The Surrender Tree last year? Maybe we all would have seen it coming had we been paying closer attention. Do not underestimate the power of the Engle.
Love, Aubrey by Suzanne LaFleur
Oh, it has its fans and its defenders. It’s also a Wendy Lamb book, so if Lamb ends up with two of the coveted Newbery wins (When You Reach Me is also hers) then somebody had better give that lady a pay raise and pronto. LaFleur’s novel has the initial advantage of grabbing you by the jugular in the first chapter. Heck, in the first page even. It’s a debut, I believe, and LaFleur’s a New School graduate at that. Definitely one to keep your eye on.
The Small Adventure of Popeye and Elvis by Barbara O’Connor
I don’t know why, but I have the strangest feeling that this book is going to get a lot of discussion on the panel. At least I hope it does.
WHAT WILL NOT WIN
The Evolution of Calpurnia Tate by Jacqueline Kelly
It experienced a lovely bit of buzz early in the year and felt like a surefire favorite. As time went on, however, the buzz died down. I’ve heard a fair amount of folks discuss their new issues with it involving everything from race to extraneous chapters, and it bodes ill for the little novel. I think it has to ability to inspire love much in the same way as When You Reach Me, but when the committee discusses the term “distinguished” it may find itself left out of the final countdown. A pity since I really liked it too.
A Season of Gifts by Richard Peck
Even if that conversation over at Heavy Medals concerning the “Indian Princess” in the book hadn’t occurred, Peck’s latest is nice but really doesn’t quite live up to his previous two Grandma Dowdel books in the end. I do not think it will be particularly missed if it doesn’t win anything this year.
CALDECOTT
WHAT WILL WIN THE AWARD
The Lion and the Mouse by Jerry Pinkney
I don’t feel very creative this year. Last year the awards felt like a total gamble, though I correctly predicted that the committee would shy away from being too creative after the explosive win of Hugo Cabret. This year the committee is meeting after the election of Barack Obama, and an African-American illustrator has not won the Caldecott since Leo Dillon won it with his wife Diane back in 1977 for Ashanti to Zulu: African Traditions. Add in the fact that the most buzzed book of the year is Jerry Pinkney’s and you’ve got yourself a very probable winner. Now I am NOT saying that the Caldecott committee is going to sit down and say to themselves “let us pick Jerry because he’s black.” I’m saying that in the back of their minds, without their even knowing it, they are going to reflect the times in which they live. In 1995 Smoky Night won not long after the L.A. race riots. In 1976 and 1977 the Dillons won two years in a row as race relations changed in our country. In the 1968 the Vietnam War raged and the winner was Drummer Hoff, a psychedelic book about peace. Book winners reflect history, one way or another, sometimes without the committee members realizing it. The 2009 Caldecott committee is going to pick the book that is the MOST distinguished. And what, I ask you, is more distinguished than this lion? There’s a reason my library doesn’t have giant stone llamas guarding the doorways, people. Pinkney has created a book that everyone likes, even folks who don’t much care for his art in general. It has won people over. And now we’re going to see a master of illustration get the award he truly deserves. To which I say, bravo.
WHAT WILL WIN THE HONORS
Moonshot: Flight of Apollo 11 by Brian Floca
If it were not nominated in the same year as The Lion and the Mouse I’d say it had a chance at the gold, right and proper. Floca took what could have been yet another book about the moon race to celebrate the 40th anniversary, and then turned it into something remarkable. The art is breathtaking, but who knew the man could rustle up such an amazing text to match it? The level of detail and intelligence that went into this book is stunning. It’s undoubtedly one of my favorites of the year, and if you can stare at that image of the huge moon pulling the shuttle into its gravitational orbit and NOT shudder, then you’ve no heart, sir. No heart at all. I can see non-fiction naysayers tossing this one aside, but as far as I’m concerned it’s one of the greatest books of the year. Bar none.
All the World by Liz Garton Scanlon, illustrated by Marla Frazee
Sometimes I don’t review a book because it does nothing for me. Sometimes I don’t review a book because I never had time to get to it. And sometimes I don’t review a book because I can’t figure out what to say about it. That’s the best reason I can give you for never reviewing, or even really mentioning, this quiet 2009 release. Marla Frazee whet her whistle with a Caldecott Honor last year for A Couple of Boys Have the Best Week Ever (another book I never reviewed, and for the same reason). She may have to keep making additional room on her shelf for another Honor plaque, since this is the book that’s going to win an honor because of its slow, sleepy, laid-back, almost throwback feel. Caldecott committees like books with simple meaningful language. If they need one this year, this will probably be it. Plus Frazee’s a god. There’s that.
WILD CARDS
14 Cows for America by Carman Agra Deedy with Wilson Kimeli Naiyomah, illustrated by Thomas Gonzalez
I always like to have one small press wild card to throw into the mix. Last year that wild card was A River of Words, and please note how very nicely that particular book did. This year my selection goes to Peachtree Press. The Caldecott committee may not be swayed by Gonzalez’s luminous tones and striking images… or they might. It’s entirely impossible to say. They’ll certainly have to look at how he made the pictures, and whether he just copies faces from photographs (he didn’t). That level of realism, though . . . will it help or hurt the book in the end? Haven’t a clue. Talk about a wild card.
Robot Zot by Jon Scieszka, illustrated by David Shannon
Because, dear friends, I think that there’s room enough in this world for a little robot hellbent on the destruction of a single kitchen. Yes I do. I do, I do.
John Brown: His Fight for Freedom by John Hendrix
I think I’m just getting punchy and playing devil’s advocate at this point. But how wild would it be if this won? I mean, there’s no denying that it’s entirely original. You won’t find anything else like it on the market today. If the Caldecott committee has a couple nuts on it who are dedicated to the idea of wholly original storytelling, this book may have a fighting chance. It would certainly make for a lot of interesting discussions around the country. Just sayin’.
WHAT WILL NOT WIN
The Curious Garden by Peter Brown
I’m a big fan, but I’ll honestly tell you that I don’t think the book’s going to make it. It could, though. You have to love the colors, the story, and the layout. You should take note of the brown gunk on the edges of the pictures and how it attempts to suffocate the action, until that last two-page spread. But I think the sheer simplicity of the piece may be its downfall. They’re going to note that Brown’s a great artist, and they’ll look forward to his work in the future, but they’re not going to give him a shiny medal just yet. That’s my guess anyway. He’ll just have to settle for being a New York Times bestseller instead.
Redwoods by Jason Chin
It won’t, but not through any fault of its own. Actually, it just suffers from the We Are the Ship problem. Which is to say, the text and the images don’t reflect one another at all times. There are moments in this book when the characters are doing one thing, the text is saying another, and you could easily switch out one picture for another without difficulty. That’s not a problem, but it does make it ineligible for a Caldecott.
The Mermaid Queen by Shana Corey, illustrated by Edwin Fotheringham
It breaks my heart. Because I love this book down to my soul, but other folks are not sharing my love like they should.
The Storm in the Barn by Matt Phelan
Yeah, I know that folks were discussing this, since it got a Scott O’Dell Award recently. But graphic novels typically cannot win the Caldecott because you have to be able to remove the words and the book will still make sense. A wordless book might win, but it would make a heckuva lot more sense just to make a graphic novel award and be done with it. Still strange to me that ALA hasn’t. Yes yes, we have too many awards. Doesn’t matter. At this point it is clearly necessary. Comics are going away anytime soon, after all. Maybe they’re just waiting for more to hit the market.
FYI, I find it funny that after my recent post about reviewing men vs. women, my Newbery picks are so lady heavy and my Caldecott picks so manly. See this post at Collecting Children’s Books for the stats displaying whether men or women win more Newberys and Caldecotts.
And for everyone else . . .
SIBERT
AWARD:
Claudette Colvin: Twice Toward Justice by Phillip Hoose
Duh. Unless the Sibert folks are getting kooky on us.
HONORS:
Moonshot: Flight of Apollo 11 by Brian Floca
Moonshot just happened to come out in a year when there were other particularly fabulous books. Otherwise I’d give it this Award easy. But c’mon. It’s Claudette. Not a bad one to come in second place to.
Redwoods by Jason Chin
Maybe it’s a long shot, but I just really liked how Chin presented the information in this book. Non-fiction picture books are so hard.
Marching for Freedom: Walk together, children, and don’t you grow weary by Elizabeth Partridge
Because it’s got to win something, dammit. I just don’t see it pulling off a Newbery. Guess that’s why they invented the Sibert in the first place.
CORETTA SCOTT KING AWARDS
There’s an excellent round-up of contenders here in case you can’t remember what’s up for contention.
ILLUSTRATOR AWARD
Looking Like Me by Walter Dean Myers, illustrated by Christopher Myers
As I see it, when you’ve gotten to the point where you’re blowing up slides of bark and illustrating on top of them, that’s a mark of crazy creativity.
HONOR
The Lion and the Mouse by Jerry Pinkney
Yeah yeah. I know how crazy it is to say it’s going to get an Honor in anything. Still, Pinkney should let other folks get big awards once in a while. That’s my take.
AUTHOR AWARD
Sweethearts of Rhythm by Marilyn Nelson, illustrated by Jerry Pinkney
Since I don’t usually dig the Pinkney this wasn’t one of my favorite illustrated books, but I did love the poems themselves. Poetry deserves some love. And this might do it.
AUTHOR HONORS
The Rock and the River by Kekla Magoon
It doesn’t take much to see how accomplished Ms. Magoon is, and what great things we’re going to see from her in the future. There’s even been Newbery buzz around this one.
Flygirl by Sherri L. Smith
I have heard very positive things about this little book. So that’s where my money goes.
Mare’s War by Tanita Davis
(A) Because she’s awesome (B) Her book is awesome and (C) See points (A) and (B).
Mother Poems by Hope Anita Smith
Well, why the heck not? There’s a book that needs some love, and I love it. I haven’t seen it on the Mock Coretta Scott King discussion lists either, which worries me. Go, Smith, go!
CARNEGIE
Again, I’m putting on my blindfold, throwing a dart at a wall, and let’s see . . . yes! The name Weston Woods has come up yet again.
PRINTZ
Marcelo and the Real World by Francisco X. Stork – Though, to be honest, I don’t pay attention to this sort of thing.
GEISEL AWARD
Little Mouse Gets Ready by Jeff Smith
Which is to say, the best book TOON Books has put out yet. I’m pretty sure that it’ll get the prize and not Luke on the Loose, but we’ll see.
HONOR
Pigs Make Me Sneeze by Mo Willems – Take THAT Elephants Cannot Dance!
BATCHELDER AWARD
PICTURE BOOK AWARD
Waiting for Winter by Sebastian Meschenmoser
Because if it does not win something I will personally eat and devour every last committee member.
The Squirrel’s Birthday and Other Parties by Toon Tellegen
The real question may come down to whether or not it was published first in America or in England. There’s also the fact that while I love it, some folks can’t stand it. Hm.
ODYSSEY AWARD
*sigh* No idea. I never do. I’m going to need a car someday, just so I can listen to them.
SCHNEIDER FAMILY BOOK AWARD
AWARD
Marcelo in the Real World by Francisco X. Stork
Sort of a shoo-in. Still.
HONOR
Anything But Typical by Nora Raleigh Baskin
Even though I didn’t review it, I did learn to respect it.
Love, Aubrey by Suzanne LaFleur
Would it count if the mother has a mental illness? I’m not sure what the requirements are here.
THE NON-EXISTENT GRAPHIC NOVEL AWARD FOR KIDS
AWARD
The Secret Science Alliance and the Copycat Crook by Eleanor Davis
I did love The Storm in the Barn, but when I read The Secret Science Alliance it was like my brain was growing as I read.
HONOR
The Storm in the Barn by Matt Phelan
In lieu of this award, I’m so glad it won the Scott O’Dell. The Scott O’Dell Award should be renamed The Award Deserving Books Get When They Don’t Win Newberys. Chains, Green Glass Sea, etc.
FYI, I will be Twittering the winners as they are announced next Monday starting at 7:45. If you want constant updates, I’m your woman at @FuseEight. Follow me and I won’t let you down. Live reporting, the way momma used to make.
Filed under: Uncategorized
About Betsy Bird
Betsy Bird is currently the Collection Development Manager of the Evanston Public Library system and a former Materials Specialist for New York Public Library. She has served on Newbery, written for Horn Book, and has done other lovely little things that she'd love to tell you about but that she's sure you'd find more interesting to hear of in person. Her opinions are her own and do not reflect those of EPL, SLJ, or any of the other acronyms you might be able to name. Follow her on Twitter: @fuseeight.
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As for When You Reach Me being the kind of book that appeals more to adults than kids, I know a big group of fourth-graders who all say it’s the best book they’ve ever read, and are heartily hoping it wins the Newbery.
So, do you think Pinkey can pull of a CSK even though the book doesn’t really speak to the African-American experience?
I loved the Myers, and am also a huge fan of the Negro Speaks of Rivers, which I wouldn’t be surprised to also see get a Caldecott Honor.
Wintergirls is going to get some Printz love.
Claudette Colvin is going to win the Siebert AND YALSA’s new nonfic award.
I hope Marching for Freedom gets something. It’s so good, but gets overshadowed by Claudette Colvin.
I echo your sentiments on Marching Toward Freedom. It must win something! I loved that book.
Can I tell you how much I want Wild Things to win a Newbery Honor? I *really, really, really* want that book to get some recognition.
I love your predictions and think they are pretty on the mark. But I don’t see how Pinkney could pick up a CSK because “The Lion & the Mouse” doesn’t have an African American theme so let’s put in E.B. Lewis for “The Negro Speaks of Rivers,” or if they’re feeling edgy, Sean Qualls for “Who Will I Be, Lord?”
I’m pulling for Grace Lin, Rebecca Stead, and Liz Scanlon. Go team!
How about an award for middle grade fiction??
We had our Mock Newbery discussion yesterday, and When You Reach Me won. And you’re right – there was a lot of “I LOVE this book.”
Our honor books, The Evolution of Calpurnia Tate and The Year the Swallows Came Early, also had their fervent supporters, though. Especially Swallows. Actually most people picked either Swallows or When You Reach Me as their first title, with Calpurnia as the perpertual runner-up.
Full disclosure, though: I neglected to include Claudette Colvin when I finalized our discussion list in December, and that might have changed things.
I really want “Charles and Emma” to win Newbery Honors. But don’t think it will. 🙁
I loved A Wrinkle in Time when I was in 6th grade. I cried when Meg rescued Charles Wallace. That climatic scene is described in detail on page 149 of When You Reach Me. It is such a big spoiler, that it robs L’Engle’s book of its emotional core. As a children’s librarian, I continue to ask if a child has read A Wrinkle in Time before recommending When You Reach Me.
A book that was on the Cybil shortlist got my attention. “The Listeners” by Gloria Whelan should be a Caldecott contender, but will probably be overlooked.
JOHN BROWN! Fingers Crossed
I LOVE the “Herge Award”. Although I don’t care for the genre much, Tin Tin always was the best. My (homeschooled) kids learned to read from Tin Tin. Good times.
Don’t know if anybody cares, but WAITING FOR NORMAL was given a Schneider Family Award because its protagonist has dyslexia, not because the mother had mental illness.
Isn’t YALSA giving out a nonfiction award for the first time this year? That’s where I’m hoping CHARLES & EMMA will be on top of the heap. Although, who knows… Claudette’s been nominated, for that award too. It could be a rout! (My Claudette love is pretty high; I’m in the Jonathan Hunt camp.)
My vote for the Batchelder is for Annika Thor’s A FARAWAY ISLAND. I hate describing books this way, but it’s Anne of Green Gables-meets-Number the Stars and just plain beautiful. It made the Horn Book Fanfare list this year, so I’m not the only one giving it the love.
Oh! I had “Waiting for Normal” completely wrong. Thanks for the correction, Brooke.
What about Sturtevant’s THE BROTHERS STORY for the Printz? It’s beautifully written–Sturtevant has an amazing gift for creating language that is convincingly archaic but entirely readable. The narrative is gripping and the story is heartfelt and complex.
Betsy, I am loving you right now for putting John Brown and 14 Cows For America into the mix.
For the CSK illus. award my money is on Bad News For Outlaws illus by R. Gregory Christie.
I loved Sweethearts of Rhythm
I know in the past you said you weren’t a big fan of his style but this is a different medium for Christie. I thought it worked very well to bring the story out.
I think (hope) Dinosaur Hunt by David Catrow has a shot at a Geisel.
The sports fan in me refuses to believe that When You Reach Me will win. The team is first place all season hardly ever wins it all in the end.
I so want Evolution of Calpurnia Tate to medal. I shall cross my fingers and my toes.
Why only two Newbery Honors?
I think Confetti Girl by Diana Lopez will win the Belpre.
Marcelo in the Real World by Stork – Printz
One more for Belpre (can memiors win?)
Leaving Glorytown: One Boy’s Struggle Under Castro by Eduardo F. Calcines.
Francisco Jimenez won an honor last year for REACHING OUT, a memoir, and also for the earlier installment, BREAKING THROUGH, a couple years ago.
My students and I noticed that the robot on the cover of ROBOT ZOT is missing a piece of the medallion on his belt on the cover of the book. Yet, this dagger-like piece appears behind the medallion on every other page. Students also noticed that the girl in HIGHER HIGHER has no freckles on the cover of the book, but freckles throughout the rest of the book.
The majority of my mock Caldecott groups chose LION AND THE MOUSE, although several favored A PENGUIN STORY as the medalist or an honor.
Go Popeye and Elvis! I have not read Wild Things but have been meaning to. Wonder if I can squeeze it in before Monday?
What about a Newbery for Helen Frost? Crossing Stones was A.Mazing! I know she has gotten a Printz before maybe Crossing Stones is more Printz than Newbery?
When You Reach Me? There is so much love for this book but in my heart of hearts I am hoping something else wins, anything else really.
At my school Newberry Club voted last week, and When You Reach Me won. I think this book has a great chance of winning this year, although I haven’t read it yet. My friend read The Evolution of Calpurnia Tate, and she said it was extreamly boring, but very very very well written. It may just get an honor. I can’t wait until Monday!!! 🙂
Betsy, I’m so happy to see you mention The Secret Science Alliance. I was on the Cybils graphic novel panel and held out for this one until the end, politicking to keep it in the running. My husband and I both giggled maniacally through the whole thing. =)
I’m sure looking forward to five hours from now.
Nice job on the Newbery and Caldecott predictions, Betsy!
Your predictions win again! Well played.